Methodology

The Somalia Municipality Risk Dashboard integrates multiple geospatial datasets to assess hazard exposure, vulnerability, and overall disaster risk across municipalities. Each hazard layer is modelled independently before being combined with exposure and vulnerability indicators to produce standardized municipality-level risk information. The full technical methodology, including data sources, modelling approaches, and validation procedures, is documented in the documentation section of the dashboard.

How the Risk Dashboard is Built

Each hazard layer is independently modelled and normalised to a common 0–10 risk scale. Hazard, exposure, and vulnerability indicators are integrated at the municipality level to support evidence-based planning, investment prioritisation, and disaster risk reduction.

1. Hazard Modelling

Hazard layers quantify the likelihood and intensity of natural and human-induced hazards affecting municipalities.

2. Exposure Assessment

Exposure datasets identify the population, infrastructure, and assets located within hazard-prone areas.

3. Vulnerability Assessment

Socio-economic indicators are used to estimate how susceptible communities are to disaster impacts.

4. Risk Aggregation

All indicators are standardised and weighted using expert judgement. The resulting municipality risk index is validated against historical disaster impacts and available ground-reference information before publication.

Hazard Layers

Flood

Current Level: High

Riverine and pluvial flooding are modelled using hydrodynamic simulations for multiple return periods.

Drought

Current Level: Critical

Drought severity is classified using SPI, SPEI, and NDVI anomalies against long-term climatic baselines.

Conflict

Current Level: Elevated

Conflict exposure is derived from ACLED conflict event density aggregated to municipality boundaries.

Data Sources

The dashboard integrates authoritative national and international geospatial datasets, including:

An interactive GIS platform that transforms fragmented geospatial data into actionable risk information, enabling evidence-based municipal planning, disaster preparedness, and resilient infrastructure investment.

Through collaborative leadership, the Nagaad Project is building resilient, sustainable cities that serve all communities.

Mogadishu
Baidoa
Kismayo
Dhuusamareeb
Beledweyne
Garoowe
Hargeisa